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powerarmour wrote:I smell a future Nvidia buyout...
There is a funky dance going on right now between chip giants Intel and nVIDIA and I just want to cut through the crap and tell you that no matter what the companies are saying it is likely to end with nVIDIA being purchased by Intel. Both parties know it and the only thing that hasn’t been determined yet is the price, which is what all this posturing is about.
Intel this week cancelled Larrabee, its proposed graphics processing unit (GPU) that was intended to compete with both nVIDIA and ATi (now a part of AMD). The moment AMD bought ATi Intel had to decide whether to build or buy its own GPU to stay in contention. They decided to build, or at least said they had. It’s hard to say how viable Larrabee ever was but at some point it turned from a weapon against nVIDIA to a barrier to Intel buying nVIDIA. So Larrabee had to go, because without that chip Intel presents a much less imposing target for the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission which might oppose a merger on anti-trust grounds.
With Larrabee, Intel could be seen as crushing a major rival. Without Larrabee, Intel is just trying to enter a new market.
Someone just sent me an email and asked if I thought Intel might buy Nvidia now that Larrabee is dead. I would have just answered it and then disregarded it if I hadn’t gotten a phone call asking the same dumb question.
Intel won’t buy Nvidia for the following reasons:
Larrabee isn’t dead - there will be a Larrabee graphics chip, based on x86 architecture. There will be a whole family of Larrabee chips. Wishful thinking won’t make Intel or its ambitions go away. The company has, and continues to make, huge investments in the graphics technology and space.
Intel believes all esoteric architectures, of which they include the GPU ASIC, will fade away and only the X86 architecture will prove to be universal. It has endured for the past 40 years. As a recent proof, Intel points to the Cell processor.
The cultural differences, acrimony, and belligerences between Intel and Nvidia run so deep it would be impossible to blend the organizations without a few homicides.
It’s unlikely, regardless of how big Intel’s checkbook is, that the two companies could ever agree on the price.
The Nvidia BOD and shareholders of Nvidia would never approve a friendly acquisition by Intel, and Nvidia has a multi-voting technique that would delay any hostile attempt for over a year.
If Intel could buy Nvidia, one of the first things it would do would be to dump the ARM-based Tegra product just as they dumped the ARM-based XScale product, which they did because they think the x86 has a more promising and scalable future. Given the huge goodwill they’d have to pay to get Nvidia, selling off an asset at a breakeven point at best would hardly endear the company to Wall Street or its shareholders.
Intel doesn’t need Nvidia
But most important is the fact, and it is a fact, that Intel doesn’t think it needs Nvidia. The company has all the graphics IP it needs from Imagination Technologies, plus its own labs. It’s not that Intel couldn’t build a GPU, but rather that the company doesn’t see today’s GPU architecture as having long legs - they don’t think it will scale and it certainly can’t do MIMD. -To Intel, it is a dead end and why invest in that? I need to say this again because it really is a critical difference in the basic philosophies of the two companies. None of the events of the past week have had anything to do with hardware design. Yes GPUs are hard to design. So are CPUs. So is any billion transistor part. Intel simply doesn’t see a future for the conventional SIMD GPU architecture. Right or wrong, that’s where their analysis leads them, and you can huff and puff about it all you want, Intel is not going to change its mind on that matter.
It’s a naïve speculation
It’s naive to evaluate the computer industry as through it was a chess board and say if White takes bishop then Black has to take queen. It just doesn’t work that way, never has. Remember the rumors and speculation floating around when AMD bought ATI. Then the smart folks all knew for certain that Intel had to buy Nvidia. Most of the same reasons prevailed then as they now as to why that was absurd.
Then remember a year or so later when AMD’s fortunes looked bleak and the smart people knew for certain that Nvidia would buy AMD. Uninformed, unsophisticated, historically unfounded conclusions based on a bowling alley score card. The PC industry isn’t sport. If you want to forecast the industry you better understand its working parts, the history of its people, and the technologies within it.
Never say never
Another thing you learn if you’ve been in this industry a while is to never say never. So with that precaution I guess I can’t say Intel will never buy Nvidia, but if they do it won’t be the Nvidia we know today.


powerarmour wrote:
I smell a future Nvidia buyout...

thegrommit wrote:powerarmour wrote:
I smell a future Nvidia buyout...
Welcome to 2006![]()
It would be amusing if Nvidia end up as the next Real3D.


Gulftown 6-core is officially named "Core i7 980X"
Intel to stick with i7 naming for its 32nm high-end
...
Due to the nature of 32nm manufacturing process exhibiting fabrication improvements over 45nm, it was initially anticipated that Gulftown chips were to be labeled under the “Core i9”identifier. The second and perhaps more reasonable theory assumed that the products would be labeled “Core i9” because they carry a higher core count than the current high-end offerings (see: “Core i7 + 2” analogy) and an increased 12MB cache design. In addition, they feature inclusion of the new Advanced Encryption Standard (AES-NI) instruction set and a sustained 130W TDP, allowing for an incredible 21.7W per core with exceptional overclockability.

Intel Corporation today reported fourth-quarter revenue of $10.6 billion. The company reported operating income of $2.5 billion, net income of $2.3 billion and EPS of 40 cents. For 2009 Intel posted revenue of $35.1 billion. The company reported full-year operating income of $5.7 billion, net income of $4.4 billion and EPS of 77 cents. The company generated more than $11 billion in cash from operations and paid cash dividends of $3.1 billion


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