Computer Predicts Blockbusters and Box Office Flops

Hollywood producers fretting over this year’s box office downturn should take heart. A scientist [Professor Ramesh Sharda of the Oklahoma State University] in the United States says he has come up with a computer programme that helps predict whether a film will be a hit or a miss at the box office long before it is even made.

Using a neural network to process the results, the films are placed in one of nine categories, ranging from “flop,” meaning less than $1 million at the box office, to “blockbuster,” meaning more than $200 million. The results of the study showed that 37 percent of the time the network accurately predicted which category the film fell into, and 75 percent of the time was within one category of the correct answer.

Sharda may have picked the ideal moment to publish his findings. As of mid-November, North American ticket receipts stood at $7.6 billion, around seven percent down on the same stage in 2004, although that was before the release of three big films; “Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire,” “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” and “King Kong.”

Reuters